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The college football world was hoping for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, offering lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 against the spread, consisting of 3 fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public don't appear to think so. A minimum of in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a specifically popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
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"All the money is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market as well. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the biggest underdog amongst the Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked to a number of bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely respected player."
Even though reputable money has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public wagerers are overdoing Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas video game will be huge for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We chatted with several bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has actually approached somewhat to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at many sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I wouldn't be surprised if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, but I presently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd chance it wanted. Are the Buckeyes ready for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic consulted with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before respected money pressed it to the present line of -2.5. A a little greater majority of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some highly regarded cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The overall has actually increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the biggest move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp wagerers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and right away our Ohio bettors thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line flip? Simply put, the wagering action.
Even though Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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